With three and a half weeks left until Election Day, the question on the tip of every politico’s tongue is, “Who’s leading?” With Romney coming out on top in last week’s debate, he is currently experiencing a bump in the polls. The problem, of course, is that polls are very fickle creatures. A candidate can be on top one week and down by a significant margin the next. President Obama can attest to this. So can Romney ride the wave all the way to victory?
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog gives Gov. Romney a 32.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but that number was half that before last week’s fateful debate. One night in Denver was all it took for an infusion of energy in the Romney campaign. However, in the same post on FiveThirtyEight, Silver points out that while Romney currently leads in national polls, he isn’t faring as well in state polls. So far he has managed no more than a tie in the all-important battleground states. So which set of polls do we believe?
The answer is to take them all with a grain of salt. No matter how many polls we take or analyze the fact is we won’t know which ones are right until November 6. There’s still three and a half weeks left to go and a lot can happen in those three and a half weeks. There’s still the remaining presidential debate and the possibility of a few flubs and snafus by either candidate. But this race just got interesting again. I’m all for a little bit of drama in presidential campaigns, because who are we kidding? We’re Americans and anything that comes too easily, we are naturally suspicious of. So if Obama’s got to fight for his seat in the Oval Office, bring it on. It’s never good to have a candidate get too comfortable at the top.
Let the games begin and may the odds be ever in your favor.