By Zachary Kushel
Much has been said and written since Election Day about the future direction of the GOP. What is clear is that Barack Obama made history in many respects, and did so in convincing electoral fashion. His ability to effectively capture the mantle of change from Senator John McCain reinforces just how damaged the Republican brand is.
Conventional wisdom surrounding a McCain candidacy was that he could never get through a Republican primary and therefore on a national ticket. But in a general election, McCain would have appeal to the broad electorate and would stand a good chance of winning. He is a moderate to conservative Republican, is well-known as a maverick, has bucked the GOP on multiple occasions, is friendly with Democrats, has worked across party lines to pass bipartisan landmark legislation, and, of course, is a war hero.
Yet on Nov. 4, none of this mattered. The country wanted change, and anyone with an R next to his name had little chance in the face of a strong anti-Republican headwind. It is doubtful that Ronald Reagan himself could have produced a different result.
The Republican strategy of the Bush years, of appealing to and turning out the base, is no longer viable. This base is shrinking in size, and the issues used to drive them to the polls have turned off the broader electorate. Obama successfully remade the electoral map, turning the southern states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, not just by exciting the Democratic base, but by registering and turning out a new type of voter.
In North Carolina, for example, preliminary exit polls show that McCain won every age group except 18-29. Obama won this group by an astounding margin, 74 percent to 26 percent, a full 18 point jump from 2004, when Kerry defeated Bush just 56 percent to 43 percent amongst those 18-29 in NC. This demographic accounted for 18 percent of all votes cast in NC, up from just 14 percent in 2004, and made the difference in a very close race in the Tar Heel state.
Exit polls also demonstrate a deterioration of GOP gains made amongst minority voters in 2004. Nationwide, Obama won upward of 95 percent of the African-American vote (up from 89 percent in 2004), and 67 percent of the Hispanic vote (up from 55 percent in 2004). African-Americans made up 13 percent of all voters (up from 11 percent), and Hispanics made up 9 percent of voters (up from 8 percent). While this turnout increase was not astronomical, and the increase in African-American votes can likely be attributed to the presence of Obama at the top of the ticket, this nonetheless points to problems for Republicans for future cycles.
By 2020, Hispanics will make up 18 percent of the U.S. population and African-Americans almost 13.5 percent. Projections have these numbers rising even higher the further out you go. Republican strategists were content in the past to write off these demographic trends because these increases in population did not translate into votes. But what the Obama campaign and organization proved is that these communities can be effectively mobilized. If Republicans stand back and do not make an appeal to these new voters, they risk relegating themselves to the role of a permanent opposition party.
But how can the GOP begin to rebuild and appeal to these young and minority voters? Republican Party leaders, elected officials, and candidates can find these answers right in front of their eyes if they spend some time speaking with the 21-29 year old operatives that form the backbone of GOP campaigns and legislative offices all throughout the country. They will find that these young staffers are not ideologues or zealots and do not think of issues in terms of binary choices. Instead, we are ethnically diverse, pragmatists, friends with Democrats, and are Republicans because we believe in freedom, opportunity, and the economic principles that the modern party was founded on.
We are Republicans because we believe in a small, limited government. We believe government should provide for a strong national defense. We want government to stay out of people's lives. We believe in the entrepreneurial spirit. We are fiscally responsible.
The party has abandoned this philosophy in recent years. The GOP fell into the trap of big government conservatism and abandoned the economically conservative message of the Goldwater era. With the party having practiced a seemingly contradictory economic policy over the past eight years, it is no wonder that the social conservative message is the only one that has pervaded. This has resulted in the general voter and new, younger voters perceiving the Republican Party as one dominated solely by its stance on social issues.
This branding has had a depressing impact on attracting young people to the party. Young voters tend to be less socially conservative than their parents. Rather than thinking through the issues and deciding which party better represents their values and ambitions, it seems that most make what seems to be a cursory analysis based on social issues. "If I am pro-choice, I must be a Democrat" seems to go the thinking for many young voters, regardless of how the respective platforms may fit with their philosophy on issues more pressing to their everyday lives.
For the Republican Party to survive, economic conservatives must regain their place as the dominant voice in the party. The response to the current economic crisis will have untold consequences felt for years to come. The deficit continues to balloon, and we seem content to print more money to put a band-aid on the problem.
Younger voters are likely to be disproportionately affected by this economic turmoil, most likely not for the better. In the 2010 and 2012 cycles, they will have a choice to make about their economic prospects and future. The GOP will need to re-brand itself with a coherent economic policy and spokesperson to make gains amongst this group of voters.
There remains a strong place for social conservatives in the GOP, but they cannot be the sole and dominant face of the party. The ideological litmus tests that seem to be imposed by social conservatives turn many away from the party and prevent otherwise capable leaders from seeking higher positions (most recently, look at resistance to Rudy Giuliani and Tom Ridge).
Where the social conservative message can make additional inroads for the GOP is in the Hispanic and African-American communities, where there is a large social conservative element that has been mostly untapped by the party. But the main struggle in the attempt to win over these voters continues to be the inability of the GOP to recruit minority candidates and leadership. The installation of Mel Martinez as Chairman of the RNC was short-lived and ended with xenophobic impulses successfully derailing the bipartisan immigration reform bill. For the party to make a legitimate claim of progress and inclusiveness, there will have to be marked improvement in diversity over the next two election cycles.
Zachary Kushel ’06 served on John McCain’s presidential campaign. He was New Hampshire Coalitions Director during the primary election and North Carolina Deputy State Director during the general election. He can be reached at zkushel@gmail.com..