The awards season will come to an end this week with the Oscars on Sunday, and it has been the most exciting in years. Last year, the Oscars’ best supporting actor, best supporting actress, best actor, best director and best picture picks won all of the major precursors. While this year’s supporting awards seem to be determined already, with Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin both completing their award sweeps, everything else feels like a free for all.
What are these major precursors? The Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the BAFTAs and the SAG awards. The Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice awards are both voted on by coalitions of journalists, whereas the SAG awards and the BAFTAs’ voting groups are comprised of professionals in the field such as actors, producers and directors. None of these awards align one to one with the Oscars, but because there is overlap between the SAG and BAFTA voting bodies with the academy, their results hold more predictive weight.
Maybe you’ve watched all the big nominees, or maybe you’re a casual viewer who’s going to bet on the winners this weekend. Whatever your background, here are the races to watch this Sunday.
1. Best Director
This is a weird one. Brady Corbet won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA for The Brutalist, but Sean Baker won the Directors Guild Award for Anora. The Directors Guild Award carries a lot of weight in this race because there is sure to be a lot of overlap between the directors guild and the directors branch of the academy. The best picture race is pretty connected to this one, so Anora’s strong best picture chances could push Sean Baker over the line. Personally, I am going to predict Corbet anyways. He’s won enough awards that he is still in it, and I personally prefer The Brutalist’s direction to Anora’s. We’ll find out on Sunday.
2. Best Actress
Last year’s best actress race came down to Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moonand Emma Stone for Poor Things. While that race was exciting, Stone’s BAFTA and Golden Globe wins made her statistically more likely to win the Oscar, which she did. This year’s race is pretty much down to Mikey Madison for Anora and Demi Moore for The Substance. Moore has won the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice award and the SAG award, and Madison won the BAFTA. This is a very similar split to Adrien Brody and Timothee Chalamet for best actor, with Brody snagging three out of four awards and Chalamet stealing a lone SAG win. So why is best actress contentious but Brody has basically clinched best actor? Anora’s strong best picture odds. Mikey Madison is the film, in the sense that she is the titular character and the entire movie hangs on her performance. How can Anora be so loved without that praise spreading to Madison’s performance? Also, I am completely biased and I think Brody’s performance is decisively better than Chalamet’s, but I think Madison and Moore are pretty evenly matched. Fernanda Torres could also be a dark horse here. She was not even nominated for any of the precursors except the Golden Globe for drama, which she won over well known veterans like Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet and Tilda Swinton. While I’m Still Here was slow to get a wide release, Torres secured the nomination and I’m holding out hope that the passion for her performance will result in a surprise come Sunday night.
3. Best Picture
Unless a movie sweeps everything, I don’t feel like the best picture race can be predicted. Here’s what I think is still in the realm of possibility: Anora, Conclave, The Brutalist and Emilia Perez. Really, though, it is pretty much down to Anora or Conclave. Anora won the Writers’ Guild Award, the Producers Guild Award, the Directors’ Guild Award and the Critics’ Choice Award. While one guild award is not decisive, apparently there is some esoteric statistic that says if a movie wins all three, it will win best picture. In fact, of the six or so movies that have won all three guilds, only Brokeback Mountain lost best picture, which could be attributed to homophobia. Conclave won the SAG ensemble award (their best picture equivalent) and the BAFTA award. While I realize that I am probably wrong, I am going to say that Conclave will win it. If you are sensing some anti-Anora bias from me, it is because I do not like the movie very much. I did not find it impactful from any perspective — comedic, dramatic, lighthouse, what have you. I just cannot wrap my head around the idea that this is not just one of the best movies of the year, but the very best movie of the year. For the films that swept the guilds in the past, that was indicative of a wider sweep: all the critics awards, all of the televised awards, etc. This is not true for Anora. I am putting on my tinfoil hat to say it’s just possible for a few guilds to coincidentally award the writing, the directing and the producing, but somehow that doesn’t mean that it will emerge as the entire academy’s pick for best picture. My personal picks would be Dune: Part Two or The Brutalist, but Conclave is probably my number three and that’s my final prediction.
Happy watching!
Chloe Asack is a junior in the College of Arts and Sciences. She can be reached at casack@cornellsun.com.
