Who doesn’t love a good gamble? It’s like exercise, flooding your brain with high levels of dopamine. That just so happens to be the neurological response to alcoholism and substance abuse as well, but for some reason betting and gambling are much more socially acceptable and widely promoted. Instead of Drug Abuse Resistance Education and ads comparing vaping to metal monsters, gambling addictions are instead supported with new, easily accessible platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, allowing for online bets to be placed on sports games. Long gone are the old days of personal, tangible gambling with exciting horse races and vibrant Las Vegas casinos. Now, in the advent of predictive marketplaces like Kalshi and Polymarket, not only are the participants of these platforms at additional risk compared to typical gambling sites, but the industries which they bet on are as well.
What separates these prediction markets from formally dubbed sports betting platforms is that they are not technically gambling. Kalshi, Polymarket and similar sites function more similarly to the stock market, building an information-based marketplace rather than an online casino where the house still always wins. As such, they are subject to far less regulation than typical online gambling, seeing unprecedented growth in the already populated arena of sports betting. As trades came to a head leading up to the 2026 Super Bowl, Kalshi saw upwards of $1 billion in trading volume, only surpassed by the $2 billion in trading volume during the recent March Madness season.
I am not diametrically opposed to gambling. However, in a society where people are struggling financially and susceptible to being roped in by such unhealthy practices as coping mechanisms, the surging popularity and advertisements of these prediction markets do nothing but harm. They are just as damaging as sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, yet even more accessible. Social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram and YouTube have been flooded with the typical AI-produced promotional content expected from Kalshi and Polymarket. Moreover, though, they have begun sponsoring popular creators on these platforms to boost their reach, trying to come off as a positive force rather than an invasive marketplace fueled by corruption and insider trading.
However, the potential for insider trading is not limited solely to sports; popular reality TV shows like Survivor are at risk as well. The basis of the show is that a group of people are sent to an island in Fiji and forced to compete, deliberate and, of course, survive. However, since its anniversary Season 50 premiered on Feb. 25 this year, there has been one player exceptionally likely to be voted off each week on Kalshi. Without watching even the first episode, or understanding the discourse that can occur during one, incredibly accurate predictions were made. There has even been a consistent winner pick for the season on Kalshi since before the season was released. These signs do not point to a productive, information-based platform leading people to make better decisions; rather, they suggest that insider knowledge was used in a legal gray area to make more money.
Predictions on Kalshi and Polymarket have been made for awards show winners, box-office earnings and more. There are bets on whether a show will be renewed for an additional season, the Rotten Tomatoes score of a movie and for the amount of views something will get on a streaming platform like Netflix. It’s not a matter of a project’s success anymore, but rather if somebody behind the scenes is desperate enough to manipulate the production in an attempt to get a cut for themselves. Even without considering the extension of these marketplaces into the realm of political races and legislation in our country, it raises a serious ethical dilemma. This trend forecasts a future even more enraptured by corporate greed, where sports and media are not judged by their merit but their ability to align with an insider’s planted prediction.
Aarav Bavishi is a member of the Class of 2029 in the Brooks School of Public Policy. He is a contributor for the Arts & Culture department and can be reached at arb438@cornell.edu.
