Hurricane Milton swept through the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba and Florida from Oct. 8 to 10, leaving its mark in history as the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane and third fastest intensifying hurricane recorded.
Rapidly intensifying hurricanes are defined as those whose wind speeds increase by 30 knots in 24 hours, equivalent to 34 miles per hour within a day — Hurricane Milton intensified at over double this rate, at 80 knots in 24 hours from Oct. 6 to 7. Rapid intensification poses a serious threat, as residents have little time to evacuate.
According to Prof. Jonathan Lin, earth and atmospheric sciences, the frequency of these rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones will only increase in the future. Furthermore, the proportion of hurricanes of Milton’s magnitude will also increase.
This is because greenhouse gas emissions raise the amount of thermodynamic energy available to tropical cyclones. “Think of tropical cyclones as things that extract heat from the ocean and convert that energy into kinetic energy, which is the wind swirling,” Lin said.
Low vertical wind shear, or small changes in wind speed and direction with altitude, also enable hurricane intensification. The effects of climate change on vertical wind shear are unclear, because it varies by location.
Although climate change affects long-term hurricane patterns, it did not directly cause Hurricane Milton. “There has been a lot of talk, for example, of the Gulf being extremely warm for this time of year,” Lin said. “That is true, but doesn’t necessarily mean that that has caused Milton itself.”
Like all other hurricanes, Hurricane Milton originated from a tropical disturbance, which is a cluster of thunderstorms in the tropics. In addition to being the second Category 5 hurricane in 2024 after Hurricane Beryl, Hurricane Milton impacted Florida less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene.
Lauren Bliss ’28 flew to her hometown east of Orlando on Oct. 12 for fall break and noticed differences in attitudes toward Hurricane Milton compared to past tropical storms. “We’ve been through a lot of hurricanes. This is the one I’ve seen my hometown most scared of,” she said.
Accordingly, Bliss’s hometown prepared more for Hurricane Milton than for other storms. “This is the first time I’ve ever seen stores completely out of stock. For some reason, people stocked up on toilet paper again,” she said.
Bliss spent the night of Oct. 9 on the phone with friends at home, screen sharing live news coverage of the hurricane as it hit Tampa, Florida. During the night, they watched the roof of the Tropicana Field stadium partially collapse, and Bliss’s friends experienced power outages.
Although Bliss’s travel plans were unaffected, she returned home to find a 40-foot-tall pine tree fallen in her backyard. Bliss recalled seeing piles of debris waiting to be collected in driveways and several more fallen trees littering the sidewalk.
Kalia Cheung ’28 flew to Tampa International Airport for fall break on Oct. 11 and visited Orlando and Bradenton, Florida. Cheung had initially planned to stay at the University of Southern Florida but pivoted when Hurricane Milton caused campus closures and student evacuations.
“I saw the aftermath in Tampa, just trees being cleared,” Cheung said. “In Bradenton, we saw stop signs flipped over, street signs down and fences blown.”
Hurricane Milton will not be the end of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. “We can derive physical theories for how hurricanes intensify, and it tells us that rapid intensification will increase everywhere, not just in the Atlantic basin, but other places as well,” Lin said.
Lauren Hsu can be reached at [email protected].